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Can APC win the 2015 presidential election?

Almost six months ago, I wrote an article, entitled, “Probability of APC winning the 2015 presidential election”, and got more than 200 comments, several emails and even phone calls. This was despite the fact that I do not encourage feedback on phone. The volume of responses demonstrated many things to me. The first is that it re-echoed the growing dissatisfaction that many Nigerians have about the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. Many citizens seem fed up with the fact that the government has yet to deliver on its many promises on critical sectors like security and power, while petty and grand corruption continue erupting from many corners of the polity.

The second is the tangible enthusiasm with which the citizens are awaiting an alternative choice offered by the All Progressives Congress, which will expand the options of the electorate and further widen the democratic space.

I had highlighted a few apprehensions in the said article about some of the factors which could enhance or inhibit the chances for the defeat of incumbent Jonathan by an APC presidential candidate. I had pointed to the founders of the party that they needed to beat a tactical retreat at some point, in order to give their party a new face with less political baggage. I also stressed the need for the party to assemble enabling structures that will help neutralise the regional foundations of some of the parties that came together for the merger in order to improve its national outlook. I was worried (I am still) about the accusations of religious insensitivity being levelled against the party and the consequences such an image could have on its fortunes in a country that is apparently divided on such issues. I submitted that the APC should desist from attacking the personality of President Jonathan but rather concentrate on exposing the inadequacies of his leadership style by offering an alternative programme. I was particular about the character of the person that the APC would feature as the presidential candidate and how this would be the game changer for the party. I will return to the last point in greater detail later.

Six months after that article, I must say that only a few things have changed. The first is that the APC has managed to hold a successful convention that produced a crop of leadership that is apparently more diverse. But the emergence of the new Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, was not without controversies. Many of the critics of the 75-year-old former Edo State Governor, insist that his victory was a coronation and not an election, which might have contributed to the exit of some members who had reservations with the process. Some pundits argued that the age of the Edo-born politician may hinder his performance on his new rigorous office as the head of an opposition party preparing for election. Many key members of the new executive except a few fall into the same age bracket. It means that the APC might have failed to deploy the abundant youthful resources in its midst to strategic uses. It will be recalled that the former Interim National Chairman of the party, Alhaji Bisi Akande, is also 75 years old. There are a few others who have even raised questions about the real age of the party’s National Youth Leader, Alhaji Ibrahim Dasuki Jalo, but let us leave that for another day.

Now that the dust of the convention has started settling, many Nigerians have started asking about the alternative programmes that the opposition party has to offer. Although the elections are barely six months away, I guess that there is still an opportunity for the APC to aggressively market her programmes to Nigerians especially in areas where the PDP-led Federal Government has performed woefully. It is unsettling however that the APC has yet to show the Nigerian public that it is any different from the PDP. With the current movements and cross-carpeting of politicians between the PDP and the APC, it will take the Nigerian public eye sometime to spot the difference when they start showing them. Besides, some of the states under the control of the APC are said to be performing well, but the party has yet to showcase them appropriately and convincingly. For instance, many observers continue to applaud the Governors of Lagos, Rivers and Oyo states in terms of infrastructure, but the APC has yet to take ownership and derive electoral mileage from these positive examples. There is still a lot of work to be done on the party’s image. Elements within the PDP have intensified a campaign to demonise the party by linking it with the Boko Haram terrorists in the North-East.

My final and probably most important point is the issue of who emerges as the Presidential flag bearer of the party. Out of the many people who may be interested in the contest, it seems that Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) is the leading contender. Those who support him argue that he has a broad following among a spectrum of citizens especially the talakawas (peasants and the poor) in the North, which contributed largely to the millions of votes he gathered in past elections. His promoters try to present him as a strict disciplinarian, especially looking at the programmes implemented under his administration as a military head of state. However, his popularity outside the North has been negatively affected by his portrayal in the media as a violent extremist and religious bigot. Although many of his supporters continuously dismiss this as untrue, that image has stuck to the Nigerian public and may be the greatest obstacle to the emergence of the slim General. Furthermore, Buhari’s leadership credentials do not resonate eloquently with young voters who were born after August 1985 and who may be in the majority today. Other contenders like former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar have confirmed that they are also in the race. For the former VP, the political network he built across the country during his tenure in office will come handy but he is said to be unpopular within the party, especially among the powerbrokers. Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State is another aspirant for the presidential ticket. His popularity beyond his state is not so high. However, he is said to be relying on his former colleagues among the G5 governors to gather support of delegates to clinch the ticket. Other people to watch closely are Governor Aliyu Wammako of Sokoto State and Senator Bukola Saraki who are reportedly “dark horse” options for the top position on the platform of the party.

As Nigerians await the outcome of the APC primaries, a group of young political leaders has started visible mobilisation of support nationwide to persuade the APC leaders to consider zoning the presidential slot to the South-South region, with a caveat that the candidate will only serve one term. Those who are encouraging this option suggest that it is a middle ground and the easiest way to match and possibly neutralise the power of incumbency of Jonathan by taking the battle to his home front. Others insist that there are strong indications that the ruling party may be preparing to exploit tribal and religious sentiments in 2015 elections and that the APC could counterbalance this strategy by fielding a Christian candidate who has a broad support base among both Christians and Muslims nationwide. Who such a candidate will be remains a matter of conjecture. Regardless of where the pendulum swings, the personality and character of the presidential candidate will provide an insight into the kind of contest Nigerians should expect in the forthcoming elections.